{"created":"2023-05-15T08:20:21.224697+00:00","id":309,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"2c52774d-efac-49e6-8340-8de8b4a7461e"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"309","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"309"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:shobi-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00000309","sets":["10:8:56"]},"author_link":["556"],"control_number":"309","item_3_biblio_info_12":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2008-06-20","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicPageEnd":"25","bibliographicPageStart":"1","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"8","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"尚美学園大学総合政策論集","bibliographic_titleLang":"ja"},{"bibliographic_title":"Shobi journal of policy studies, Shobi University","bibliographic_titleLang":"en"}]}]},"item_3_description_10":{"attribute_name":"抄録(日)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"欧米のおける合計特殊出生率(total fertility rate、以下TFRと略称)は、工業化段階のある過程で、女性の就業率や大学進学率の上昇ともない趨勢的に低下する傾向がある。しかし、やがてある段階からTFRは回復してTFRはU字型の趨勢曲線を描く。筆者はこのことを先の編著〔丸尾、川野辺、的場編、2007〕ほか(丸尾、2006 および2007)で指摘してきた。本稿の主目的はそのようなU字型数勢趨勢曲線が日本でも生ずるかということと、何がTFRのU字型趨勢転換をもたらすかを解明することである。TFRが回復した国では、その何年か前から限界TFR とも呼ぶべき数値〔ある年のTFR とその前年のTFRとの差〕が上昇しているが、日本では1990 年代の後半から限界TFRは上昇趨勢にある。国別の国際クロス分析では女性就業率および一人当り所得とTFRは工業化のある段階までは負の相関関係であるが、ある段階から正の相関関係に変わる。日本でも1960年代からの時系列データでは、女性就業率とTFRは負の相関関係にあるが、都道府県別のクロス・セクション分析では正の相関関係に転じた。また国際的に見ると、TFRが最初に低下して少子化に悩んだスウェーデン、フランスのような国から出生率の回復が始まっている。国内でもアナロジカルにTFR の低下が最初に深刻になった首都圏からTFRの回復が始まるだろうか? どのような施策や要因がTFRのU字型転換のきっかけになるのか?本稿はわが国の都道府県におけるTFRとその関連要因の分析によってそうした疑問に答えることを主目的とするものである。","subitem_description_language":"ja","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_description_11":{"attribute_name":"抄録(英)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"In the industrial stage of economic development, when the female labour force participation rate1increases, the total fertility rate (TFR) tends to decrease. In the case of Japan, the total fertility rate peaked at 4.4 after the Second World War. Since then, the TFR followed a declining trend and it reached a record low point at 1.26 in 2005.However, the TFR in Japan recovered to 1.32 in 2006 and 1.34 in 2007 (Chart 1)..In this paper I will explain first, the possible reasons why the TFR has been decliningas a trend in Japan since the middle of the 1960s. Second, I will suggest that the upwardmoves of TFR in 2006 and 2007 could be forecast by the behaviour in the so-called\"marginal\" TFR(the difference between TFR in the year and that of the one year before.It is interesting to know that the \"marginal\" TFR in this meaning had taken an upwardtrend since the middle of the 1990s (See Chart 7 and chart 9 & 10). In Japan the clearnegative co-relationship between the female labour participation ratio and the TFR hasbeen observed by time-series regression (See Chart 4). However, a cross-section regressionon 47 counties in Japan shows that the co-relationship has transformed from a negativeone to positive one (See Chart 13).Third, I will try to explain the main reasons that cause such a transformation in theTFR trend. Fourth, I wondered if an analogical behaviour that is observed internationallywould be observed at national level in Japan. Just as those countries such as Sweden andFrance whose TFR had declined at the earlier stage succeeded to recover the TFR earlierthan other countries, in Japan the TFR of the prefectures whose TFR began to declinefirst will recover the TFR earlier than other prefectures.The present paper is an attempt to see if a similar behaviour of TFR that was observedin developed countries will take place at prefectural level in Japan. In my earlier papers (Maruo, 2007) and jointly edited book (Maruo, Kawanobe and Matoba, 2007), I assumedthree factors that have negative effects on the TFR. They are (1) conservative factors, especially traditional gender status relationships, (2) poor family policies, especially week financial support from the governments and (3)unfavourable economic conditions such as stagnation and a high unemployment rate especially that of young people. However, as Japanese economic conditions have become better than those in the 1990s, traditional gender status is changing and government family policies have become active, there are some signs to suggest that the TFR of Japan is likely to take a similar Ucurve behaviour as Nordic countries and France have taken.","subitem_description_language":"en","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_description_15":{"attribute_name":"表示順","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"1","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_description_16":{"attribute_name":"アクセション番号","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"KJ00005075936","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_description_8":{"attribute_name":"記事種別(日)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"論文","subitem_description_language":"ja","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_description_9":{"attribute_name":"記事種別(英)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Article","subitem_description_language":"en","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_3_publisher_22":{"attribute_name":"出版社","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"尚美学園大学総合政策学部総合政策学会","subitem_publisher_language":"ja"}]},"item_3_source_id_1":{"attribute_name":"雑誌書誌ID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA12006349","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_3_source_id_19":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"13497049","subitem_source_identifier_type":"PISSN"}]},"item_3_text_6":{"attribute_name":"著者所属(日)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_language":"ja","subitem_text_value":"尚美学園大学客員"}]},"item_3_text_7":{"attribute_name":"著者所属(英)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_language":"en","subitem_text_value":"Shobi University"}]},"item_3_title_3":{"attribute_name":"論文名よみ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"ニホン ニ オケル シュッショウリツ ノ Uジガタ カイフク ノ カノウセイ ト ユウコウナ シサク : トドウフケン データ ニヨル ブンセキ","subitem_title_language":"ja-Kana"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"丸尾, 直美","creatorNameLang":"ja"},{"creatorName":"マルオ, ナオミ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"},{"creatorName":"MARUO, Naomi","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"合計特殊出生率のU字型趨勢変動","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"女性就業率とTFRの関係の逆転","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"「限界」合計出生率","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"U-curve behaviour of total fertility rate","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Transformation in the co-relationship between the female labour participation rate and the TFR","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"\"Marginal\" TFR","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"日本における出生率のU字型回復の可能性と有効な施策 : 都道府県データによる分析","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"日本における出生率のU字型回復の可能性と有効な施策 : 都道府県データによる分析","subitem_title_language":"ja"},{"subitem_title":"The possibility of total fertility rate U-curve behaviour occurring in Japan and effective policies to support this: a cross : sectional analysis with respect to 47 prefectures","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"3","owner":"3","path":["56"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"PubDate","attribute_value":"2017-04-21"},"publish_date":"2017-04-21","publish_status":"0","recid":"309","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["日本における出生率のU字型回復の可能性と有効な施策 : 都道府県データによる分析"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-09-21T02:57:07.227449+00:00"}